Project: Advancing Flash Flood Forecasting with NextGen and Nowcasting in MCS-Dominated Regions

OWP-FA1: Forcings Selection/Evaluation/Preprocessing

OWP-FA7: Flash Flooding  

Investigators

Humberto Vergara, University of Iowa (Lead PI)

Katie van Werkhoven, RTI International (RTI) (Co-PI)

Witold Krajewski, University of Iowa (Co-PI)

Bong-Chul Seo, Missouri University of Science and Technology (Co-PI)
 

Team

Mohamed Abdelkader, University of Iowa (Postdoctoral Researcher)

Felipe Quintero, University of Iowa (Associate Research Scientist)

Vanessa Robledo, University of Iowa (PhD Candidate)

Kate Giannini, University of Iowa, (IFC Program Manager)

Relevant work - FLASH

Publications:

Vergara, H., Kirstetter, P. E., Gourley, J. J., Flamig, Z. L., Hong, Y., Arthur, A., & Kolar, R. (2016). Estimating a-priori kinematic wave model parameters based on regionalization for flash flood forecasting in the Conterminous United States. Journal of Hydrology, 541, 421-433.

Gourley, J. J., Flamig, Z. L., Vergara, H., Kirstetter, P.-E., Clark, R. A., Argyle, E., Arthur, A., Martinaitis, S., Terti, G., Erlingis, J. M., Hong, Y., & Howard, K. W. (2017). The FLASH Project: Improving the Tools for Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction across the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98(2), 361-372. 

Gourley, J. J., & Vergara, H. (2021). Comments on “Flash Flood Verification: Pondering Precipitation Proxies”. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(3), 739-747.

Presentations:

Vergara, H., Forero Buitrago, G. A., & Gourley, J. J. (2025, January). Evaluating the Impact of MRMS Updates on the Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for FLASH Hydrologic Modeling Products. In 105th Annual AMS Meeting 2025 (Vol. 105, p. 457111).

Vergara, H., Quintero, F., Gourley, J. J., & Lakshmivarahan, S. (2025, January). Creating Synergy between Land Surface and Rainfall-Runoff Models for Improved Flash Flood Predictions. In 105th Annual AMS Meeting 2025 (Vol. 105, p. 449018).

Relevant work - Storm-tracker

Publications:

Robledo, V., Henao, J. J., Mejía, J. F., Ramírez-Cardona, Á., Hernández, K. S., Gómez-Ríos, S., & Rendón, Á. M. (2024). Climatological Tracking and Lifecycle Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Northwestern South America. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129(19), e2024JD041159. 

Presentations:

Robledo, V., Vergara, H. J., Henao, J. J., & Mejia, J. (2024, December). Multiscale analysis of the environmental precursors of mesoscale convective systems in the Tropical Andes. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 2024, No. 204, pp. A51X-204).

Codes/Algorithms: 

ATRACKCS is a Python package for the automated detection and tracking of Mesoscale convective systems (MCS): https://ahwa.lab.uiowa.edu/algorithm-tracking-convective-systems-atrackcs 

Mesoscale convective systems climatology analysis: https://github.com/RobledoVD/MCSs_Climatology_NwSA  

 

Relevant work - Benchmarks/Metrics

Presentations:

Luukinen, B., Brown, J. A., van Werkhoven, K., Gilson, S., Van Houtven, G., & Vu, K. (2024, December). Hurricane Helene Flood Communication Research. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 2024, No. 362, pp. NH23H-362).

Brown, J., Doran, E., Taylor, L. E., Luukinen, B., DeBree, S., Jefferson, A. J., ... & van Werkhoven, K. (2025, January). Mapping Cross-Sector Communication Networks for Natural Hazards: A Qualitative Exploration of Formal and Informal Flood Warning Communication Pathways for Enhancing Community Resilience. In 105th Annual AMS Meeting 2025 (Vol. 105, p. 454239).

Taylor, L. E., DeBree, S., Brown, J., Luukinen, B., Doran, E., Johns, C., ... & van Werkhoven, K. (2025, January). Qualitative Methods and Community Engagement as a Means of Understanding Social-Ecological Systems: Insights from a Flood Communication Study. In 105th Annual AMS Meeting 2025 (Vol. 105, p. 454314).

Relevant work - Nowcasting/Missouri

Publications:

Tounsi, A., Temimi, M., Abdelkader, M., & Gourley, J. J. (2023). Assessment of deterministic and probabilistic precipitation nowcasting techniques over New York metropolitan area. Environmental Modelling & Software, 168, 105803.

Sit, M., Seo, B. C., Demiray, B., & Demir, I. (2024). EfficientRainNet: Leveraging EfficientNetV2 for memory-efficient rainfall nowcasting. Environmental Modelling & Software, 176, 106001.

Sit, M. A., Seo, B., & Demir, I. (2023). TempNet–temporal super-resolution of radar rainfall products with residual CNNs. Journal of hydroinformatics, 25(2), 552-566.

Das, P., Posch, A., Barber, N., Hicks, M., Duffy, K., Vandal, T., ..., van Werkhoven. K., & Ganguly, A. R. (2024). Hybrid physics-AI outperforms numerical weather prediction for extreme precipitation nowcasting. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1), 282.

Presentations:

Zhang, X., Aravamudan, A., Nasibi, M., Robledo, V., Maggioni, V., Vergara, H. J., ... & Anagnostopoulos, G. C. (2024, December). Enhancing Precipitation Nowcasting in West Africa through IR-Integrated Deep Generative Models. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 2024, pp. H34H-05).

Codes:

Threading Inputs to Outputs (TITO) is a framework designed to run the EF5 hydrologic model operationally, integrating satellite data, nowcasting techniques and NWP products: https://github.com/AHWALab/TITO/tree/main 

Robledo Delgado, & Vergara, H. (2025). Threading Inputs to Outputs (TITO) (v2.0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17246491 

Relevant work - Evaluation

Publications:

Seo, B. C., Rojas, M., Quintero, F., Krajewski, W. F., & Kim, D. H. (2022). Expanding and Enhancing Streamflow Prediction Capability of the National Water Model Using Real-Time Low-Cost Stage Measurements. Weather and forecasting, 37(11), 2021-2033.

Abdelkader, M., Marouane, T., & Taha, B. M. J. O. (2023). Assessing the national water model’s streamflow estimates using a multi-decade retrospective dataset across the contiguous United States. Water 15 (13), 2319.

Velásquez, N., Krajewski, W. F., & Seo, B. C. (2025). Assessing the Impact of Radar-Rainfall Uncertainty on Streamflow Simulation. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 26(2), 169-184.

Presentations:

Denno, M., Lamont, S., van Werkhoven, K., Wood, A., Sturtevant, J., & Regina, J. A. (2024, December). Demonstrating New Tools to Foster and Expedite Standardized, Continental-Scale Hydrologic Evaluation. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 2024, No. 2065, pp. IN33B-2065).

van Werkhoven, K., Regina, J. A., & Zimmerman, J. (2024, December). Evaluation of National Water Model Streamflow Forecasts for Hurricane Helene. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (Vol. 2024, pp. NH11D-07).

van Werkhoven, K., Regina, J. A., Zimmerman, J. R., & Denno, M. (2025, January). Evaluation of National Water Model Streamflow Forecasts for Large-and Small-Scale Flood Events during the 2024 Hurricane Season. In 105th Annual AMS Meeting 2025 (Vol. 105, p. 457155).

Vergara, H., Forero Buitrago, G. A., & Gourley, J. J. (2025, January). Evaluating the Impact of MRMS Updates on the Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for FLASH Hydrologic Modeling Products. In 105th Annual AMS Meeting 2025 (Vol. 105, p. 457111).

HydroShare Resources:

Abdelkader, M., Y. Tsang (2025). HRRR Rainfall Forecasts During Hurricane Helene, HydroShare, http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/45355945743f497fa3381b595d49cb2b 

Abdelkader, M., M. Temimi (2024). NWM Forecast Points at Gauged Locations and Hydrofabric Parameters for Model Assessment, HydroShare, http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/eb8961f8dcc2413cbe06d85322a428cc 

Abdelkader, M., J. H. Bravo Mendez (2024). Retrieving and Visualizing MRMS Rainfall Data for Selected Locations and Time Periods, HydroShare, http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/455294614cd34379a8e95593bd1e38ac 

Abdelkader, M., J. H. Bravo Mendez (2023). NWM version 2.1 model output data retrieval, HydroShare, https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.c4c9f0950c7a42d298ca25e4f6ba5542